First things first: The ACC side of the EagleBank bowl is wide open after Duke lost. The Blue Devils could not count a win over reclassifying North Carolina Central, so they needed to get to 7 wins. The ACC picture is closed, with 7 teams qualifying.

TE Robert Henry is in street clothes, once again. (updated) Darius Marshall is on the field in full gear and working out.

I’m about as down as anybody else, but I’ll still attempt the bowl projections. I’ll make a projection for Marshall beating SMU and losing at UTEP, the unlikely event that the Herd loses to SMU and wins UTEP, and the even more unlikely event that the Herd sweeps the two.

I will change one projection, and take Southern Miss to defeat Tulsa at Hattiesburg, despite the fact that G.J. Kinne could pass for 400 yards, if he stays upright. I will stay with ECU over Southern Miss in the finale, though the history dictates otherwise.

The big, big picture: The number of teams at .500 or better have risen to 75, but 13 sit at even .500. The ACC already cannot fill one bowl (GMAC) and I expect another to open (EagleBank). The MAC and Sun Belt will pollute the at-large pool — both already have an extra 7-win team, and may add another… keep an eye on 5-5 Bowling Green and the hyphenated Louisiana schools.

As as before, if the Herd loses out, I will no longer care.

The current CUSA standings:
East
East Carolina 5-1, 6-4
Southern Miss 4-2, 6-4
UCF 4-2, 6-4
UAB 4-2, 5-5
Marshall 3-3, 5-5
Memphis 1-5, 2-8

West
SMU 5-1, 6-4
Houston 4-2, 8-2
Tulsa 2-4, 4-6
UTEP 2-4, 3-7
Tulane 1-5, 3-7
Rice 1-5, 1-9

My projection, if Marshall beats SMU and loses at UTEP:
East
ECU 7-1, 8-4+
UCF 6-2, 8-4
Southern Miss 5-3, 7-5
Marshall 4-4, 6-6
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
Houston 6-2, 10-2+
SMU 6-2, 7-5
UTEP 4-4, 5-7
Tulsa 3-5, 5-7
Tulane 1-7, 3-9
Rice 1-7, 1-11

As I’ve expected all along, five 7-win teams to fill the 5 contracted bowls, with Marshall the loose 6-6 team, hopefully to take Army’s spot in

Washington.

If Marshall beats only UTEP:
East
East
ECU 7-1, 8-4+
UCF 6-2, 8-4
Southern Miss 5-3, 7-5
Marshall 4-4, 6-6
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
SMU 7-1, 8-4+
Houston 6-2, 10-2
Tulsa 3-5, 5-7
UTEP 3-5, 4-8
Tulane 1-7, 3-9
Rice 1-7, 1-11

Same as above, but SMU wouldn’t be heading to Hawaii if it wins the conference! As I understand things, Hawaii gets the No. 2 choice this year, and I

figure it would prefer Houston if it can’t get June Jones and SMU.

If Marshall somehow, some way wins the next two:
East
ECU 7-1, 8-4+
UCF 6-2, 8-4
Southern Miss 5-3, 7-5
Marshall 5-3, 7-5
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
Houston 6-2, 10-2+
SMU 6-2, 7-5
UTEP 3-5, 4-8
Tulsa 3-5, 5-7
Tulane 1-7, 3-9
Rice 1-7, 1-11

That makes six 7-win teams, and we’re probably still looking at MU going to Washington. Now… if Tulsa beats Southern Miss, Marshall could end up as one of five 7-win teams, which would get the Herd out of Washington.

OFFENSE: C-
Antavious Wilson is becoming money, once again. Lee Smith did his best Cody Slate impersonation. But the failure to run and the poor level of pass protection was stunning.

DEFENSE: B
Yes, there were 2 glaring big plays. But once again, this unit played well enough to win and got dealt a bad, bad hand. Another theme, isn’t it?

SPECIAL TEAMS: F, F, F, F
Ratanamorn’s 46-yard field goal can’t save this grade.

QUARTERBACKING: B
I only deducted for the lack of a 2-minute score, which has disappeared from the Marshall lexicon. That will be addressed in my Monday column. Otherwise you have to give it up for Mr. Anderson, for he is one tough dude.

COACHING: D
The quarterbacking comment applies here.

OVERALL: D
This loss would be a lot easier to stomach if it didn’t come after the UCF loss. And the East Carolina loss. Etc., etc., etc.

… as of Thursday, 11/12 at 9:30 p.m. all subject to change. I’ve covered C-USA pretty thoroughly on this blog, and in my Gazette story tonight.

ACC: Look for GMAC Bowl to open and about a 50-50 shot at opening the EagleBank spot (opposite Marshall?)

Big East: Unless UConn wins 2 against ND, Syracuse, USF, this league will not fill its 6 bowls UNLESS Notre Dame takes Gator Bowl spot. St. Petersburg Bowl could open (perhaps to Middle Tennessee).

Big Ten: Detroit might open up, but I’m seeing a perfect 7-for-7. But BCS at-large may open up Detroit, or even Tempe as well.

Big 12: Could send a team to the at-large pool… probably will fill its 8 bowls unless it fills a BCS at-large spot. Not likely, unless Texas loses the Big 12 title game.

MAC: This league has 4 7-win teams for 3 bowls, with Northern Illinois joining the fray Thursday night. Remember, a 7-5 MAC team will trump 6-6 Anybody in the national at-large pool.

Mountain West: Has 5 bowls, might not get a 5th team. And even if it gets a 5th, it might need 6, if TCU goes to the BCS. Look for Humanitarian Bowl to open, and maybe something else.

Pac-10: May get 7 teams for 6 bowls, but it may need a 7th (USC to BCS?). Poinsettia may open up.

SEC: Could provide a surplus 7-win team, or could magically leave the Birmingham Bowl open — which is possible if/when Florida and Alabama go to the BCS. So what if Florida plays Alabama for the BCS title? Hmmmm….

Sun Belt: Troy is your champ and Middle Tennessee is going somewhere at 7-5 or better… I’m thinking Mobile, in the ACC No. 9 spot, but the Sun Belt does have back-up agreements (Birmingham, Independence, C-USA’s St. Pete spot). Keep an eye on Birmingham. UL-Monroe should get 6, 7 if it beats UL-Lafayette. Lafayette could get 6 and join the MACsters in the at-large pool.

WAC (oops, forgot earlier): Should have a surplus team … *unless* Boise State goes to the BCS. A surplus team will have 7 and could get the Pac-10’s Poinsettia Bowl opening, if it happens.

(Updated 1:45 p.m.)

Finally, I’ll dare to make specific bowl projections, at least within Conference USA. All teams are down to three games remaining, so this is going to start making sense.

Some ground rules: I’ll make 3 projections … one with Marshall winning the two home games, one with Marshall beating Southern Miss and another with Marshall beating SMU only. I will not project Marshall winning at UTEP. And finally, if Marshall loses out, I will quit bowl projecting altogether and perhaps start coach projecting.

First, the big, big picture: The number of teams at .500 or better have plummeted to 71 (for 68 spots), with 5 sitting at even .500. The ACC and Mountain West took major hits — the ACC has 7 teams ahead for a probable 9 bowls, while the MWC has 4 ahead for 5 or 6 bowls, the latter if TCU goes to the BCS.

At the low end, Troy has all but clinched the Sun Belt, owning tiebreakers over the two second-place teams. But Middle Tennessee likely will go 7-5 or better, so the Blue Raiders will beat all 6-6 teams in at-large situations. The Sun Belt does have some “backup” deals, though, with the Independence and Birmingham, though I don’t expect those to pan out … yet.

The current CUSA standings:
East
East Carolina 4-1, 5-4
Marshall 3-2, 5-4
Southern Miss 3-2, 5-4
UCF 3-2, 5-4
UAB 3-2, 4-5
Memphis 1-4 2-7

West
Houston 4-1, 8-1
SMU 4-1, 5-4
Tulsa 2-3, 4-5
UTEP 2-3, 3-6
Tulane 1-4, 3-6
Rice 0-5, 0-9

My projection, if Marshall beats Southern Miss and SMU.
East
ECU 6-2, 7-6
Marshall 5-3, 7-5
UCF 5-3, 7-5
Southern Miss 3-5, 5-7
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
Houston 7-1, 12-1
SMU 6-2, 7-5
Tulsa 5-3, 7-5
UTEP 4-4, 5-7
Tulane 2-6, 4-8
Rice 0-8, 0-12

That would be 6 teams to fill 5 plus the EagleBank, if available. Let’s try Houston at Liberty, SMU at Hawaii, St. Pete with a UCF/ECU dilemma, Tulsa to Fort Worth, New Orleans getting a pick and Marshall possibly the loose team, EagleBank or somewhere.

If Marshall beats only Southern Miss:
East
ECU 6-2, 7-6
UCF 5-3, 7-5
Marshall 4-4, 6-6
Southern Miss 3-5, 5-7
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
Houston 7-1, 12-1
SMU 7-1, 8-4
Tulsa 5-3, 7-5
UTEP 4-4, 5-7
Tulane 2-6, 4-8
Rice 0-8, 0-12

That makes Marshall a loose 6-6 team, at the mercy of the at-large pool. If I have my rules correct, the Herd could get ousted from the EagleBank by 7-5 Middle Tennessee. (More likely scenario: MT takes a vacant ACC spot in the GMAC.)

If Marshall beats only SMU:
East
ECU 6-2, 7-6
UCF 5-3, 7-5
Marshall 4-4, 6-6
Southern Miss 4-4, 6-6
UAB 4-4, 5-7
Memphis 1-7, 2-10

West
Houston 7-1, 12-1
SMU 6-2, 7-5
Tulsa 5-3, 7-5
UTEP 4-4, 5-7
Tulane 2-6, 4-8
Rice 0-8, 0-12

That makes Marshall and Southern Miss loose teams, both at the mercy of the at-large pool.

I’ll pore over the ACC and other situations later. One note about my projections: I am picking Tulsa over Southern Miss on Nov. 21 in Hattiesburg, and I’m picking ECU over Southern Miss the next week in Greenville. Both are very debatable picks.

As always, upsets can and probably will happen, thus screwing all this up.

Conference USA reported on its Web site, and assistant commisssioner Russ Anderson told me, that C-USA supplies a team for the EagleBank Bowl in 2010 and 2012. But the EagleBank Bowl says Army gets the first crack at 2012, with C-USA in a backup role.

That seems picky now, especially with Army’s struggles on the field. But that is a potentially large issue down the road. In any event, I expect all sides in these bowl agreements to be clear and on the same page. My merry voice is on Anderson’s voicemail, asking for an explanation.

BTW, worst MU bowl scenario for this season (besides finishing 5-7 and getting skunked): A cold, rainy late December day at Washington, losing to Duke.

The same five, Liberty to the champ and other to the Hawaii, St. Pete, New Orleans and Fort Worth games, in no particular order. Add in the EagleBank Bowl in 2010 and 2012, and the new game in the Cotton Bowl in 2011 and 2013, with back-up agreements in the “off” years, so to speak.

‘Tis good to hang onto the Liberty, in my humble opinion.

From my report card on the UAB game, I wrote:

“I really, really, really wanted the Herd to try a few plays and a long field goal at the end of the first half, for one overriding reason: Those guys need the experience. At some point, they may need to score a field goal in 20 seconds to win a game.”

So at UCF, Marshall gets the ball at its 45-yard line with 17 seconds and 2 timeouts. I have personally seen Craig Ratanamorn hit a 60-yard field goal, so the Herd wasn’t that far from taking the shot, and had several plays to do it in. But no, we see some desperate shots that weren’t effective at all.

(I will have to admit: You were watching closer than I was. I had an end-of-game deadline to meet. Of course, I also assumed there was no way in hell the Herd was coming back.)

Anyway, I think we have (again) witnessed MU’s inexplicable refusal to emphasize the 2-minute offense. I will leave logical conclusions to the readership.

OFFENSE: C-
293 total yards, 4 sacks and 2 really, really painful turnovers add up to a tough performance, any way you slice it. But let’s look at the Herd’s first possession after going up 20-7, when it had to start from the 1. Thinking it over, the 3 penalties (one negated a roughing the passer, another a long bomb) did as much as anything to keep the Herd from reversing field position. Pass protection went downhill as the game went on.

DEFENSE: D
This was an “A” after three quarters. Brett Hodges went 8-of-13 for 105 in the 4th quarter and looked like a stud against the blitz. 4th downs were very disappointing.

SPECIAL TEAMS: B
Ashton Hall’s field goal return was the game-turner for the longest time. Whitehead uncorked a 57-yard punt, his best-looking effort of the season. Ratanamorn hit his field goals and made a tackle. The pooch kickoff just wasn’t a smart call.

QUARTERBACKING: D
BA showed too much of the jitters early and had a really bad pick in the end zone. But he should have gotten a TD on the flea flicker to Chuck Walker and had another huge bomb to Aaron Dobson wiped out. With all that, he’s got to hang onto the ball with 2 minutes left, no matter what.

COACHING: F
First off, thanks to the e-mailers who told me of some of the ESPN analysis. I had an end-of-game deadline to meet, which made this game an insufferable blur.

I’m not in the mood to go down the laundry list of failings, so I will narrow it down to two. First, I hate pooch kickoffs in the first place, and I really hate them now. Second, how do you call a timeout on your goal line with 26 seconds left, and the offense having no timeouts, and getting smoked by the play call that badly?

OVERALL: F
This is Akron ‘04 all over again, only with better weather. If this team wins another game, I’ll be mildly surprised and impressed.

In case this comes into play, the five lowest-scoring Conference USA league games since realignment. (And if you find me in error, just yell… I did this on the plane to Orlando today…)
2008– UAB 15, UCF 0
2006– Tulane 10, UAB 9
2008– Southern Miss 17, UCF 6
2008– Southern Miss 21, ECU 3
2006– Tulsa 20, Southern Miss 6