Coal and climate change: It’s all about the science

I’ve had one very angry phone call and several e-mail messages today about yesterday’s Coal vs. Climate story. And there were some online comments on the story as well, all complaining that the Gazette was wrong to frame this story within the worldwide scientific consenus that exists on global warming.

By way of explanation for why I wrote the story this way, here’s a look at the developing consensus on the main issues, as seen through the reports issued over the years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Academy of Sciences …

– 1990: First Assessment Report of the IPCC –

The unequivocal direction of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.

– 1992:  Policy Implications  of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation and the Science Basis (NAS) –

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations probably will be followed by increases in average atmospheric temperature.

– 1995:  Second Assessment Report of the IPCC –

The balance of the evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.

– 2001: Third Assessment Report of the IPCC -

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

– 2001: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (NAS) –

Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability … Despite the uncertainties, there is general agreement that the observed warming is real and particularly strong within the past 20 years.

– 2007: IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report –

… Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.

… Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the balance of the climate system and are drivers of climate change … Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution.

* Thanks to the book, “Reporting on Climate Change: Understanding the Science,”  which pulled out some of these quotes from a 2003 story in The New York Times.